Positive EV Bets: What They Are and How to Find Them

Sports betting is often seen as an exciting way to test your skills and try to beat the sportsbooks at their own game. However, most traditional betting relies heavily on luck, making consistent success a challenge.

So what if there was a way to shift the odds in your favor by taking a more calculated approach?

In this post, we’ll look at what positive expected value bets (+EV bets) are, how they can give you an edge over the sportsbooks, why they’re essential for long-term profitability and how to actually find them.

Contents

1. What are Positive EV Bets?
2. How do Positive EV Bets Work?
3. How Much Money Can you Make from Positive EV Bets?
4. How to Find +EV Bets
5. Start Turning +EV Bets into Cash

1. What are Positive EV Bets?

Positive EV bets are wagers where the bettor’s statistical probability of an outcome differs favorably from the sportsbook’s implied probability. By using data and analysis to understand the numbers behind each bet, you can move beyond guesswork and make smarter, more profitable bets that are statistically likely to make profit.

In simpler terms, a +EV bet means the odds offered by the sportsbook provide you with a potential long-term edge, making the wager mathematically profitable over time. Let’s look at a quick example:

A coin toss has a 50% chance of landing heads or tails. If someone offers you odds that imply a 60% chance for heads, you’ve found a positive expected value situation. This means if you bet on heads, the odds are in your favor, based on true probabilities.

Unfortunately, in sports betting, outcomes are less certain than coin flips. Therefore, finding +EV bets requires skill, data, and the ability to spot value in the lines offered by sportsbooks.

2. How do Positive EV Bets Work?

The concept of expected value (EV) originates from statistics and measures the average outcome you can expect if you placed the same bet repeatedly under identical conditions.

You can find out whether a bet is +EV quickly and easily using an expected value calculator. However, if you’re keen to learn how to calculate positive EV bets by hand, check out the section below.

How to Calculate Expected Value

To calculate the expected value of a bet:

• Multiply the potential payout by the probability of winning.
• Subtract the potential loss multiplied by the probability of losing.

Imagine you’re betting $100 on an underdog with odds of +200, however the statistical true probability of the underdog winning is 40%.

• Payout: $200 x 40% = $80
• Loss: $100 x 60% = $60
• EV = $80 - $60 = +$20

In this case, the expected value is positive, indicating a profitable betting strategy over time.

3. How Much Money Can You Make from Positive EV Bets?

The potential payouts and earnings you can make from positive expected value bets depend on several factors:

• Bankroll: A larger bankroll allows you to place more +EV bets and take advantage of value opportunities.
  
  
• Edge Size: The higher your edge (the gap between the actual probability and implied odds), the greater your potential returns.
  
  
• Consistency: EV betting is not a short-term strategy. Individual results will vary, but +EV betting ensures profitability over a large number of bets. For example, if you consistently place bets with a 5% edge and wager $1,000 per month, you could expect an average profit of $50 monthly (5% of $1,000). Over time, this adds up significantly.
  
  
  

4. How to Find +EV Bets

You can find +EV bets manually using the formula above, but this can be incredibly time-consuming. 

That’s why a range of powerful tools and techniques exist to help you fast-track this process and not only identify, but consistently profit from, +EV bets over time.

Here are four of the most powerful and popular approaches you can take to find +EV bets (Psst, we’ve saved the best until last):

1. Expected Value Calculators

An EV calculator can help you quickly see whether a wager is profitable and estimate the potential profit. Simply enter the odds and probabilities for an individual bet and the calculator will do the rest.

While EV calculators can be useful tools for identifying whether an individual bet is +EV on a case-by-case basis, they don’t include scanning functionality like more advanced software, and so are generally not used as all-encompassing tools in an EV betting strategy.

2. Market-Based Modeling

Compare the odds offered by different sportsbooks and consider the vig included in these odds. If one sportsbook offers significantly better odds on the same event, it might represent an opportunity with positive expected value.

While a handy practice to help sharpen your EV betting game and knowledge of which sportsbooks offer the most generous odds, market-based modeling can take years to master, and so isn’t as much as a quick-fix as other options.

3. Projection-Based Modeling

Use data-driven models to predict the likelihood of specific outcomes based on player statistics, team performance and other factors. This analysis - comparing these probabilities to the sportsbook's odds - can reveal +EV bets.

Similarly to market-based modeling, projection-based modeling can be a handy method to identify EV bets more quickly in the long term. However, this can be time-consuming, and some advanced tools can do this for you in seconds.

4. Advanced Tools

The above approaches are all manual, but there is a way to automate the process of finding +EV bets - using advanced +EV tools and software.

When it comes to EV software, no tool is more powerful than the ProfitDuel Boost Matcher Pro (launching soon!). This ultra-powerful EV betting hub scans thousands of game odds, identifies EV opportunities in your state and displays them on an easy to read dashboard, saving you hours of trawling through sportsbooks and comparing odds.

What’s more, the Boost Matcher Pro’s built-in calculator tells you exactly how much to bet on the +EV side to achieve the expected profit, leaving the math to the machine.

The all-in-one EV betting tool, the Boost Matcher pro removes hours of work and years of experience, putting it into one handy tool that even EV beginners can use to add $1,000s to their bank each month.

5. Start Turning +EV Bets into Cash

Now that you understand the power of +EV betting, it’s time to take the next step and start making real profits. 

Finding value bets manually can be time-consuming, but with ProfitDuel, you’ll have access to cutting-edge tools like the Boost Matcher Pro, designed to identify +EV opportunities quickly and efficiently to leave you more time to maximize profits.

And if you’re excited about the Boost Matcher Pro, then join the club! This game-changing tool will be available on the ProfitDuel platform in just a few weeks. 

In the meantime, sign up to ProfitDuel right away to unlock 50% off your first month and start earning profits matched betting. Or if you’re not quite ready, discover the six best smart betting strategies in our free guide: '6 Ways to Gain an Edge Over the Sportsbook in 2024' and we’ll drop you an email to let you know when the Boost Matcher Pro goes live.