1. What is EV Betting?
Expected Value (EV) measures the average result you can expect from a wager if it were placed multiple times under identical conditions. In sports betting, EV betting involves comparing implied probabilities from sportsbook odds to the true odds or actual likelihood of an outcome, to help give you an edge over the sportsbook.
Understanding EV involves identifying two key terms:
- Positive EV (+EV): Bets with a profitable edge that are expected to generate long-term profits.
- Negative EV (-EV): Bets that are likely to result in long-term losses.
Probability is central to EV betting, helping you determine whether a bet has positive or negative expected value.
2. How Does EV Betting Work?
EV betting works by identifying discrepancies between sportsbook odds and true probabilities. When sportsbook odds undervalue an outcome compared to its actual likelihood, you can spot +EV opportunities.
But how do you find out whether an opportunity has positive or negative expected value? Well, there’s the easy way and the hard way…
Easy Way: Use a powerful EV betting tool to save you hours identifying and calculating EV bets by hand, enabling you to maximize your profits. More on this in a couple of sections below.
Hard Way: Use the EV betting mathematical formula and calculate EV by hand on every single potential bet, which is incredibly time consuming. We break this down in our FAQs further on the page.
3. How Much Can I Make EV Betting?
The potential payouts and earnings you can make from expected value betting depend on a number of factors, such as:
- Bankroll: A larger bankroll allows you to place more +EV bets and take advantage of value opportunities.
- Edge Size: The higher your edge (the gap between the actual probability and implied odds), the greater your potential returns.
- Consistency: EV betting is not a short-term strategy. Individual results will vary, but +EV betting ensures profitability over a large number of bets.
- For Example: If you consistently place bets with a 5% edge and wager $1,000 per month, you could expect an average profit of $50 monthly (5% of $1,000). This adds up significantly, over time.
4. How to Get Started Expected Value Betting
Getting started with expected value betting is simple if you know where to look.
Signing up to dozens of sportsbooks, spending hours searching for EV betting opportunities and calculating odds is a no-no. You'll not only risk wasting your time, but your money too.
That's why finding an experienced, reputable EV betting tool that does the hard work for you is essential.
At ProfitDuel, we're the experts in expected value betting.
How? Because we have over 15+ years of experience helping 500,000+ members across the US and Europe earn $1,000s in risk free monthly profits with EV betting, matched betting and arbitrage betting.
So why not download our free guide ‘6 Ways to Gain an Edge over the Sportsbook in 2024’ below, and we’ll notify you as soon as our industry-leading EV betting tool, the Boost Matcher Pro, goes live.
Pssst...If you're ready to rake in the profits right away, sign up to ProfitDuel today and we'll give you 50% off your first month. That means full access to all matched betting tools, guides and one-to-one support that earns some of our members $1,000+ profit in their first month.
1. Is Expected Value Betting Legal?
Expected value betting is completely legal as long as you are physically located in a state where sports betting is permitted. It is considered a strategic betting approach, and while some sportsbooks might not like it (since it allows you to secure a profit rather than them), it is totally allowed.
Although EV betting is not illegal in states where sports betting is permitted, it's important to note that each state is responsible for setting its own regulations and as such, they can differ between states. For instance, some states may allow only online betting, while others may restrict it to in-person wagering. These can affect the potential profit of EV betting available in each state.
2. What Are the Different EV Betting Strategies?
Here are the five top EV betting strategies and introduces a tool to maximize your success and potentially 10x your winnings. Get a full breakdown of five optimal EV betting strategies here):
- Find the Sharp Line
Identify the most accurate odds ("sharp line") set by market-leading sportsbooks to benchmark value. Line shopping across sportsbooks helps you spot inflated or undervalued odds, maximizing profitability over time. - Exploit Arbitrage Betting Opportunities
Arbitrage betting involves placing opposing bets on the same event at different sportsbooks with favorable odds, guaranteeing profit regardless of the outcome. While returns are small, this strategy is consistent and low-risk. - Use Sportsbooks’ Promo Bonuses and Free Bet
Capitalize on sportsbook promotions to reduce risk and find +EV opportunities. Matched betting converts promos into guaranteed profits, making it a powerful tool for long-term gains. - Track Closing Line Value (CLV)
Measure the accuracy of your bets by comparing your odds to the final closing odds, the most accurate market reflection. Consistently beating the CLV indicates a profitable long-term strategy. - Boost Matcher Pro
ProfitDuel's ultimate EV betting tool automates the above strategies, saving time and significantly increasing profits. It’s ideal for bettors aiming to streamline and scale their efforts. (Coming soon).
3. What is the Expected Value Betting Formula?
To calculate the expected value of a bet:
- Multiply the potential payout by the probability of winning.
- Subtract the potential loss multiplied by the probability of losing.
Payout: $200 x 40% = $80
Loss: $100 x 60% = $60
EV = $80 - $60 = +$20
In this case, the expected value is positive, indicating a profitable betting strategy over time.
4. Are There Any Techniques Similar to EV Betting?
There are a wide range of smart betting strategies used by bettors across the globe, outside of an expected value betting strategy.
Some of the most profitable include:
- Matched Betting: Converting sportsbook promos into cash with tools like the Dutch Matcher.
- Arbitrage Betting: Exploiting odds discrepancies across sportsbooks to guarantee profit by placing opposing bets on the same event using tools like arbitrage calculators.
- Profit Boost Conversion: Converting sportsbook profit boosts into guaranteed profits using tools like the Boost Matcher.
- Casino Promo Conversion: Gaining an edge over the casino with specialized tools like casino simulators and slots databases.
- Classic Hedge Betting: This is a more basic form hedge betting than arbitrage. It involves placing an opposing bet against your initial bet to reduce the likelihood of losing money.
5. Expected Value Betting vs Matched Betting: What's the Difference?
EV betting and matched betting are both profitable approaches, but they differ in risk and methodology.
Expected value betting involves identifying wagers with a +EV, meaning the odds suggest a higher probability of winning than implied by the sportsbook. This method relies on finding value in lines, tracking Closing Line Value (CLV), and leveraging strategies like line shopping and promotions. While EV betting can yield significant long-term profits, it involves inherent risk and requires patience, as outcomes are influenced by variance.
Matched betting, on the other hand, is a risk-free strategy (when done correctly). It uses sportsbook promotions (e.g., bonus bets) to secure guaranteed profits by placing opposing bets at secondary sportsbooks. By covering all outcomes of a bet, matched betting eliminates gambling risk, making it ideal for consistent, small profits.
EV betting embraces calculated risk for higher potential returns, while matched betting minimizes risk by guaranteeing profits through strategic use of promotions. Both approaches can be profitable but suit different risk tolerances and goals.
6. Which Types of Bets Can I EV Bet?
There are lots of opportunities for EV betting, as various types of bets can be used, depending on your strategy. Some common bet types for EV betting include:
- Moneyline Bets: Moneyline bets, which involve wagering on the outright winner of an event, are straightforward and easy to evaluate for +EV.
By identifying discrepancies between sportsbook odds and implied probabilities, bettors can find opportunities for positive EV. - Point Spreads: Spread betting involves wagering on the margin of victory or defeat. These bets often have reduced juice (-110 odds are common), making them a prime area for finding +EV.
Bettors can identify spreads that are misaligned with statistical models or public betting trends. - Totals (Over/Unders): Totals involve betting on the combined score of both teams. Sportsbooks may misprice totals due to unique match conditions or public feeling.
- Prop Bets (Player or Team): Prop bets (e.g., “Player X scores over 20 points”) are often softer markets with odds based on less sophisticated modeling. This makes them ripe for finding +EV, especially if you have deep knowledge of specific teams or players.
- Parlays: While parlays are usually discouraged due to their higher house edge, they can provide +EV if the individual legs of the parlay each have positive EV.
Some sportsbooks also offer parlay-specific promotions which can add value. - Live (In-Game) Bets: In-play betting allows bettors to react to game developments faster than sportsbooks can adjust odds. This dynamic nature makes it possible to spot significant value opportunities.
- Free Bets (aka Bonus Bets): Free bet offers and deposit bonuses often create artificially positive EV because they mitigate risk. Even if the original odds are neutral or slightly negative EV, the promo creates value.
Also known as bonus bets, free bets can be easily hedged and turned into profit through the matched betting technique (mentioned in FAQ 5). These are the most profitable bet types for EV betting. - Risk-Free Bets (aka No Sweat Bets): These offers refund losing wagers as free bets, reducing the risk of loss. If used strategically, they create high EV scenarios.
Similar to with free bets, with matched betting you can hedge the initial risk-free wager to secure a guaranteed profit regardless of outcome.
By focusing on these bet types and techniques, bettors can systematically find and exploit positive EV opportunities while mitigating risk.
7. Which Sports Can I Value Bet On?
Value betting identifies profitable sports betting opportunities by wagering on events where sportsbook odds undervalue the likelihood of an outcome.
Many sports provide unique chances for value betting success. Below are seven of the most popular sports you can value bet on. (Get a full breakdown of these 7 value betting sports here):
Football Value Bets
Football is highly profitable for value betting due to its vast data availability and the sheer volume of games, including NFL and college football. These provide ample opportunities to identify inefficiencies in sportsbook odds.
Public bias often inflates odds for popular teams or players, creating undervalued betting opportunities on opposing teams or outcomes. Football’s diverse markets, such as moneylines, spreads, and props, offer additional ways to find value. By analyzing games with a data-driven approach, bettors can capitalize on frequent market inefficiencies.
Basketball Value Bets
Basketball’s fast pace and frequent games make it a prime candidate for value betting. Odds shift rapidly due to player performance, injuries, and rest days, creating inefficiencies to exploit.
Player props, like points or rebounds, often feature mispriced odds, particularly in the NBA and college basketball. With so many betting opportunities and regular line updates, sharp bettors can consistently identify profitable edges through meticulous analysis.
Baseball Value Bets
Baseball's reliance on statistics and analytics creates countless value betting opportunities. Its long MLB season provides thousands of games, leading to frequent line movements and mispriced odds.
The sport’s inherent unpredictability, with frequent underdog wins, further aids value bettors. Props like total runs and player performance also offer inefficient pricing, making baseball an ideal sport for leveraging deep analytical insights to secure consistent profits.
Soccer Value Bets
Soccer's global reach offers endless value betting opportunities year-round, across leagues and tournaments. Its low-scoring nature and underdog victories create frequent inefficiencies in odds.
Public betting biases on star players or famous teams often inflate favorites’ odds, undervaluing draws or underdog wins. Smaller leagues or live betting markets provide even greater value for sharp bettors who analyze team performance and strategies.
Ice Hockey Arbitrage Betting
Ice hockey, especially the NHL, presents value betting opportunities due to public biases favoring popular teams or players. These skewed odds can undervalue opponents, creating profitable edges.
The sport's passionate fan base and wide variety of markets make it ideal for identifying discrepancies. By focusing on overlooked teams or outcomes, bettors can uncover consistent value in hockey betting.
Tennis Value Bets
Tennis offers unique value betting opportunities through its one-on-one format. Player-specific trends, matchups, and surface performance nuances often lead to mispriced odds. Early-round matches featuring lesser-known players can be especially lucrative.
Tennis’ scoring system causes frequent momentum shifts, creating dynamic odds that sharp bettors can exploit with timely analysis and bets.
Horse Racing Value Bets
Horse racing’s market-driven odds system creates value betting opportunities by reflecting public sentiment rather than true probabilities. Lesser-known races and events are often undervalued, while dynamic markets like place, show, or exacta bets offer additional edges.
Analyzing historical data, track conditions, and jockey performance helps bettors consistently identify undervalued opportunities in this data-rich, year-round sport.
8. Which Sportsbooks Can I EV Bet With?
Although sportsbooks may not always favor value betting (since it can lead to bettors profiting instead of them), it's a completely legitimate sports betting strategy in sports betting states. As a result, it is possible to undertake a value betting strategy at most sportsbooks.
10 of the most popular sportsbooks for EV betting in the U.S. include:
9. What Are the Benefits of EV Betting?
Some of the main benefits of expected value betting include:
- Sustainable Profitability:
EV betting focuses on identifying bets with a mathematical edge over time, rather than relying on luck or intuition which allows bettors to profit consistently in the long run, even if individual bets occasionally lose. - Data-Driven Decision-Making:
EV betting uses probabilities, statistics and odds comparisons to determine whether a bet is worth placing. By basing decisions on hard data, bettors avoid emotional or impulsive wagers.
This approach minimizes the impact of biases and ensures that each bet is placed with a calculated advantage, increasing long-term success. - Maximization of Sportsbook Offers:
EV betting often incorporates sportsbook promotions, such as bonus bets, turning these offers into profit opportunities. When used strategically, these incentives can significantly enhance a bettor’s edge. - Works in Any Market
EV betting principles can be applied across various sports and bet types which ensures that EV bettors can adjust their strategies to different sportsbooks, sports seasons, etc while still maintaining a positive edge.
10. What Are the Risks of EV Betting? (And Tips to Avoid Them)
To maximize the long-term profitability of EV betting, it’s essential to approach it with discipline, patience and a clear understanding of probability.
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Variance and Losing Streaks: Even with +EV bets, losing streaks are inevitable due to variance, which can lead to frustration or impulsive decisions.
Top tip: Stay disciplined and trust the strategy. Focus on the long-term perspective, understanding that success is measured over hundreds of bets, not just a handful of outcomes. -
Impatience and Unrealistic Expectations: Expecting immediate profits can lead to discouragement when gains are slow or losses occur early.
Top tip: Set realistic goals and track your progress over time. Patience is crucial to allow the cumulative effect of +EV betting to take shape. -
Emotional Decision-Making: Emotional responses to losing streaks or wins can result in abandoning strategy, chasing losses or making gut-based bets.
Top tip: Stick to a predefined plan, including consistent bet sizing, such as a fixed percentage of your bankroll and criteria for identifying +EV bets. Trust the long-term plan! - Misunderstanding Probability: Misjudging probability can lead to inaccurate assessments of EV, causing poor betting decisions.
Top tip: Learn and apply probability concepts to evaluate odds correctly. Use tools to help you identify true +EV opportunities. - Time-Consuming Nature (when done manually): Manually calculating expected value requires analyzing sportsbook odds, converting them to implied probabilities, and comparing these to true probabilities for every potential wager. This process is tedious and can take hours, especially when evaluating multiple games or markets.
Top tip: Save time and effort by using an EV betting tool that automatically scans sportsbook odds, calculates expected value, and highlights profitable opportunities in seconds. Let technology do the heavy lifting so you can focus on placing the right bets.
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11. Which Tools Can Help Me Find Expected Value Betting Opportunities?
You can find +EV bets manually using the formula above, but this can be incredibly time-consuming. That’s why a range of powerful tools and techniques exist to help you fast-track this process and not only identify, but consistently profit from +EV bets over time.
The right tools not only save time but also improve accuracy and ensure you’re consistently identifying profitable opportunities. Among the many tools available, three stand out as essential resources:
- Expected Value Calculator
This tool is essential for quickly determining the profitability of a bet. By inputting the wager amount, sportsbook odds, and win probability, it calculates the expected profit. This ensures that every wager you place has a clear mathematical foundation. - Casino EV Calculator
Specially designed for casino promotions, this calculator evaluates offers like free spins or slot bonuses. It factors in key elements such as the return-to-player (RTP) percentage and wagering requirements to provide a precise EV calculation.
For instance, it can help you assess whether 10 free spins on a slot game with 96% RTP are genuinely worth pursuing. - Boost Matcher Pro
This is the ultimate tool for value betting, particularly for bettors in the U.S. The Boost Matcher Pro scans thousands of sportsbook odds in real time to identify the best +EV opportunities in your state.
It then ranks these bets, calculates potential profits instantly, and eliminates the need for manual odds comparison. Additionally, its built-in Profit Tracker ensures accurate and transparent record-keeping.
These tools revolutionize EV betting by streamlining processes, reducing errors, and maximizing profitability, making them essential for anyone serious about value betting.
12. What is the Best EV Betting Platform?
Finding a good EV betting platform relies on three key things:- Powerful Software
- Easy-To-Follow Guides
- An Experienced Team
At ProfitDuel, we have over 15 years of experience helping 500,000+ members across the U.S. and Europe earn risk-free monthly profits in the $1,000s EV betting (with matched betting in particular)
With a suite of ultra-powerful matched betting, arbitrage betting and (soon-to-be) EV betting tools, alongside a range of walkthrough guides - from beginner through advanced - as well as an experienced team of experts on hand to offer support, we offer the most complete smart betting platform on the market today.
The best part? You can access it all with 50% off your first month. Claim your offer below for full access to ProfitDuel Premium software, strategies and support and get started earning.
Still want a bit more info? Download our free guide ‘6 Ways to Gain an Edge Over the Sportsbook in 2024’ to find out more about how these strategies could maximize your betting profits.
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