Is EV Betting Profitable? Breaking it Down

Expected Value (EV) betting has gripped the attention of savvy sports bettors looking for a sustainable way to boost long-term profit over the last few years.

But for those of you who are new to the concept of expected value betting, it’s natural to be skeptical. Can EV betting truly deliver long-term profits, or is it another strategy that sounds too good to be true?

In this post, we’ll break down everything you need to know about the profitability of expected value betting, including how it works, why patience is a virtue, and some essential tools to help you find the best EV betting opportunities.

Contents

1. A Quick Intro to EV Betting
2. How is EV Calculated?
3. Is Positive EV Betting Profitable?
4. Why Discipline and Patience Matter in EV Betting
5. What Tools Do I Need to Be a Profitable EV Bettor?
6. Start Turning Positive EV Bets into Cash

1. A Quick Intro to EV Betting

Expected Value measures the average result you can anticipate from a wager if it was placed multiple times under exactly the same conditions.

In sports betting, this means comparing the implied probabilities from sportsbooks odds to the true odds or actual likelihood of an outcome, based on your own analysis.

Probability plays a crucial role in expected value betting. It’s used to help you determine whether a bet has a positive or negative EV. Here’s a quick look at what those terms mean:

Positive EV (+EV): Indicates that the bet has a profitable edge and, over time, should make a profit.

Negative EV (-EV): As you might have guessed, this suggests that the bet is not profitable and will likely lead to losses in the long run.

Understanding probability is key to EV betting success. It helps you compare the likelihood of different outcomes with the odds offered by sportsbooks. When these odds don’t reflect the true chances, you may find opportunities to place bets that are undervalued and potentially profitable through +EV betting.

Expected value takes this a step further by estimating how much you could gain or lose from a bet over time. By calculating expected value, you can decide if a bet is worth placing based on the odds and probabilities. Focusing on bets with positive expected value means you’re choosing wagers that are more likely to lead to long-term profits.

Sounds complicated? Don’t worry, it doesn’t have to be. Read the next section…

2. How is EV Calculated?

By understanding the expected value, bettors can make more informed decisions, selecting opportunities that offer long-term profitability. But how do you find out whether an opportunity has positive or negative expected value?

Well, there’s the easy way and the hard way:

The Easy Way

The easy way would be to use a powerful EV tool, such as ProfitDuel’s Boost Matcher Pro (launching soon). This tool instantly scans all sportsbooks in your state, identifies +EV bets and ranks them from most to least profitable.

Better yet, on top of saving you hours locating and comparing +EV bets, you’ll save even more time with the BMP’s built-in calculator, which instantly tells you exactly how much profit is expected from your bet.

This profit is then instantly tracked by the Profit Tracker tool, allowing you to effortlessly build and track your EV betting profits over time.

Pssst, there’s not long until the launch of the Boost Matcher Pro, to be the first to hear about its arrival, download our free guide ‘6 Ways to Gain an Edge Over the Sportsbook in 2024’ and we’ll drop you an email when it’s here.

The Hard Way

Then there’s the hard way, which involves locating potential +EV opportunities by hand then using the EV formula to manually calculate when the opportunity is in fact +EV.

The formula used to calculate the EV of a wager is:

EV = (Probability of Winning × Payout) - (Probability of Losing × Stake)

Let’s say a sportsbook is offering odds of +150 on a particular outcome. You estimate the actual probability of that outcome to be 50%.

• Payout for a $100 bet = $150
  
  
• EV = (0.50 × 150) - (0.50 × 100) = $75 - $50 = +$25

Using the formula, this calculation suggests a +EV bet, meaning if you placed this bet repeatedly under identical conditions, you’d expect to profit $25 on average, per bet.

3. Is Positive EV Betting Profitable?

Yes, when executed correctly over the long term, positive expected value betting is almost always profitable, as it relies on taking advantage of statistically profitable bets.

But remember: that doesn’t mean that you will profit from every single wager. Instead, success is a long-term view. Here are 3 key things to keep in mind when looking for +EV betting opportunities:

Long-Term Trends

In EV betting, individual bets are like single dots on a massive artist’s canvas. Some will win, and others will lose, but the key lies in the bigger picture.

When you place hundreds or thousands of +EV bets, the statistical advantage you’ve built into each wager begins to show its power. Over this large sample size, your results will align with the expected value, leading to profits.

Beating the Sportsbook Margin

Sportsbooks include a margin, known as the vig or house edge, in their odds to ensure profitability, but positive EV betting focuses on identifying and exploiting discrepancies where the sportsbook's odds misalign with the true probabilities. By factoring in the vig and making value-driven decisions, bettors can overcome this margin, manage their bankroll effectively, and maximize long-term returns.

Realistic Expectations

It’s important to manage your expectations when doing expected value betting. Even with a solid +EV strategy, you’ll experience variance and losing streaks are inevitable. However, as the number of bets increases, your results will align more closely with your calculated EV, driving long-term profitability.

Understanding the concept of expected value is essential for any bettor wanting to develop a successful strategy and build their bank over time.

4. Why Discipline and Patience Matter in EV Betting

Because +EV betting is a proven strategy in terms of long-term profitability, but it’s not without its challenges.

Success in this approach doesn’t come overnight. It requires a steadfast commitment to discipline and patience - two qualities that separate profitable bettors from those who give up too soon.

• Riding the Variance
  Variance is a natural part of sports betting. Even when placing only positive EV bets, you’ll experience losing streaks. It’s important to understand that these short-term losses don’t negate the value of the strategy. Instead of chasing losses with impulsive bets or abandoning the system you need to stay consistent, trust the process and ride the variance.
  
  
• The Long-Term Perspective
  Positive EV betting is all about the long game. While it’s normal to expect immediate profits, the reality with +EV is that gains accumulate over hundreds or even thousands of bets.
  
  Patience ensures you don’t get discouraged by short-term setbacks or minor gains. By focusing on the bigger picture, you’ll see how EV betting can steadily grow your bankroll over time.
  
  
• Avoid Emotional Decision-Making
  Emotions can derail even the strongest EV betting strategies. It’s so important to stick to the plan, continuing to limit your bet size to a set percentage of your bankroll and avoiding bets that don’t meet +EV criteria. Avoid making rash decisions based on gut feelings or frustration.

Overall, probability plays a crucial role in determining expected value. It is the measure of how likely an event is to occur, which directly influences whether a bet is +EV or -EV.

Understanding probability allows bettors to assess the likelihood of various outcomes and make educated decisions based on the calculated risk and potential reward. By grasping the concept of probability, bettors can better evaluate and identify wagering scenarios that are likely to yield positive results in the long run.

By focusing on positive expected value bets - the situations where the true odds are in your favor - you can systematically work toward long-term gains rather than relying on luck alone.

5.  What Tools Do I Need to Be a Profitable EV Bettor?

While it is possible to calculate EV manually, there are tools out there which make the process faster and more accurate. Here are some tools you should check out:

• EV Calculators
  An Expected Value calculator is essential for quick, manual assessments of individual bets. Just input the sportsbook odds and your estimated probabilities to find out whether a bet has positive EV.
  
  
• Betting Models
  To identify profitable bets consistently, you’ll need either:
  
  - Projection-Based Models: These rely on data like player performance, team stats, and historical trends to estimate probabilities.
  
  By analyzing this information,  projection-based models help bettors make informed decisions rather than relying on guesswork.
  
  - Market-Based Models: These compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to identify discrepancies, inconsistencies or misprices that signal +EV opportunities.
  
  These models fall into the ‘tools’ category because they simplify complex calculations and streamline the process of finding profitable expected value bets. Instead of manually crunching numbers or comparing hundreds of odds, you can rely on these structured systems to do the heavy lifting.
  
  
• The Boost Matcher Pro
  For serious bettors, tools like the Boost Matcher Pro are game-changers. This software scans odds across multiple sportsbooks, identifies +EV bets in real time, and simplifies decision-making. With its ability to analyze thousands of bets in seconds, you’ll save time and increase profitability.

6. Start Turning Positive EV Bets into Cash

Positive EV betting offers a legitimate path to long-term profitability, but success requires the right strategy and tools.

By understanding the principles of expected value, using the right tools, and staying disciplined, you can achieve long-term success in sports betting. Start your journey today and let the numbers work for you.

Now that you understand the power of +EV betting, it’s time to take the next step and start making real profits. Finding value bets manually can be time-consuming, but with ProfitDuel, you’ll have access to cutting-edge tools like the Boost Matcher Pro, designed to identify +EV opportunities quickly and efficiently.

And if you’re excited about the Boost Matcher Pro, then join the club! This game-changing tool will be available in just a few weeks. In the meantime, discover six more powerful smart betting strategies in our free guide: '6 Ways to Gain an Edge Over the Sportsbook in 2024' and we’ll drop you an email alerting you as soon as the Boost Matcher Pro goes live.