Sports betting can feel like a massive risk, but did you know that there’s a way to consistently profit? Expected Value (EV) is a metric used to measure the expected profitability of a bet, statistically. By focusing on optimal EV betting strategies, over time you can turn the odds in your favor and make serious cash taking advantage of +EV bets.
In this post, we’ll explore 5 of the best strategies for EV betting. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, these strategies can help you capitalize on positive EV betting opportunities. Stick around until the end, where we’ll introduce you to a tool that could 10x your winnings.
5. Find the Sharp Line
4. Exploit Arbitrage Betting Opportunities
3. Use Sportsbooks’ Promo Bonuses and Free Bet Offers
2. Track Closing Line Value (CLV)
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Start Turning +EV Bets into Cash
Not all lines are created equal. Individual sportsbooks set their own odds, but someone has to go first. These trendsetters, known as ‘market makers,’ establish lines that other sportsbooks often adjust to match.
To find +EV wagers, you can identify the sharp, or most accurate, line by comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks. The market makers usually reflect the most reliable line, giving you a benchmark to spot where other sportsbooks may offer inflated or undervalued odds.
For example, if one sportsbook offers +150 odds on a team and another offers +170, the higher odds represent greater value. By consistently betting where the odds are most favorable, you maximize your long-term profitability.
Line shopping is one of the simplest and most effective EV betting strategies because it increases your chances of finding +EV opportunities. Even small differences in odds can have a significant impact over hundreds of bets. Therefore, finding the sharpest line will increase your profit over time.
Arbitrage betting, also known as “arbing,” is a low-risk EV betting strategy that guarantees a profit regardless of the outcome. This strategy involves placing opposing bets on the same event at different sportsbooks where the combined odds result in a positive return.
For example, let’s say that Sportsbook A is offering odds of +110 on Team A to win the game. Sportsbook B is offering +110 on Team B to win the game. By betting proportionally on both outcomes, you can eliminate the risk of traditional sports betting and guarantee yourself a profit.
Over a period of time, arbitrage betting can enable you to secure small, yet consistent, profits. This is what makes it such a strong EV betting strategy.
Note: Arbitrage betting can also be classified as a hedge betting strategy, similarly to the even more profitable matched betting strategy, which enables users to guarantee profits from sportsbook promos.
Most sportsbooks offer promotions, such as bonus bets (aka free bets), to attract new customers or retain their existing ones. The idea is that sports bettors, old and new, will be encouraged to place a wager. However, these incentives can provide a significant edge, when used strategically.
By using a free bet offer, you can remove the initial risk of losing your own money as you will place a wager with the promo instead. You can use free bets on high-EV opportunities, like long-shot wagers with inflated odds. But, while you won’t lose any money, you may not actually make any, if your choice of bet loses.
Important: However, there is one bonus bet boosting strategy that beats this one 10x over. While not technically an EV betting strategy, sportsbooks’ promos can be converted into guaranteed profits with matched betting. This technique involves using clever tools like a Dutch Matcher to find a hedge your bonus bet and guarantee a profit from it.
The Closing Line Value (CLV) is a crucial metric in sports betting, used to evaluate the accuracy of predictions and determine whether your bets consistently show +EV.
The closing line refers to the final odds set by sportsbooks just before an event begins. These odds are considered the most accurate reflection of the event's true probabilities, as they incorporate all available market information.
CLV measures the difference between the odds at the time you placed your bet and the closing odds. If you consistently "beat the closing line" (meaning your bets have better odds than the final closing odds) you’re likely making profitable betting decisions. When paired with sharp bookmaker predictions, the CLV is a strong indicator of +EV betting.
It's important to note that variance, or the natural fluctuations in betting results over time, can create short-term ups and downs. However, consistently beating the CLV over the long term suggests a winning strategy and positions you for sustained profitability.
To improve your CLV, start by monitoring how the odds shift after placing your bets. Compare the odds you secured with the closing odds set just before the event begins. This helps you understand whether your wagers align with the most accurate reflection of the market’s probabilities.
Additionally, you can analyze your betting history to identify trends. Look for patterns where you consistently outperform the market by securing better odds than the closing line. This indicates that your strategy is on track and positions you for long-term profitability through positive EV betting.
The Boost Matcher Pro is the US’s number 1 tool for identifying and maximizing your profits from +EV opportunities.
Instantly scanning all available bets in your state, the Boost Matcher Pro identifies, ranks and displays all opportunities in your state with a positive expected value. Better yet, its built-in calculator tells you exactly how much profit to expect based on your wager.
This cutting edge tool identifies +EV bets in milliseconds, comparing thousands of sportsbook odds with a constantly-updating objective odds database.
Not only does this mean you save hours trawling through sportsbooks, identifying bets that appear to be +EV and calculating potential profits one-by-one, but its built-in Profit Tracker tool means you’ll also gain ultimate accuracy and transparency over your +EV journey with automatically tracked profits. There literally isn’t a more complete EV betting tool on the market!
Now that you understand the power of +EV betting, it’s time to take the next step and start making real profits.
Finding value bets manually can be time-consuming, but with ProfitDuel, you’ll have access to cutting-edge tools like the Boost Matcher Pro, designed to identify +EV opportunities quickly and efficiently to leave you more time to maximize profits.
And if you’re excited about the Boost Matcher Pro, then join the club! This game-changing tool will be available on the ProfitDuel platform in just a few weeks.
In the meantime, sign up to ProfitDuel right away to unlock 50% off your first month and start earning profits matched betting. Or if you’re not quite ready, discover the six best smart betting strategies in our free guide: '6 Ways to Gain an Edge Over the Sportsbook in 2024' and we’ll notify you when the Boost Matcher Pro goes live.